What's in store for real estate in the Bay Area for the coming year? Most in the real estate industry agree that it will get worse before it gets better. However, predictions vary among our "experts." What are we in store for in 2008? When will prices begin to recover? Hear what some of them are saying.

"Don't count on market rebounding in '08, experts say." - Marni Leff Kottle of the San Francisco Chronicle.

"A real recovery in the housing market is probably at least a year off," said Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist for the California Association of Realtors.

California Association of Realtors's forecast for 2008; sales volume will continue to fall, 9% in 2008, as will the median price of a home, at 4%. Take a look at the 2008 California Housing Market Forecast presentation by Leslie Appleton-Young, Vice President and Chief Economist for the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

"The best guesstimate most can come up with these days on a residential housing recovery is that 2008 will be more than half over before housing prices even stabilize. Right now, it's anybody's guess as to when they will start to grow positively." - Ryan Fuhrmann, an article printed in The Motley Fool.


It may take until the end of 2008 or beginning of 2009 for the market to hit bottom, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

"But the one thing that economists and real estate agents seem to agree on is this: As bad as it may get in the Bay Area, the region is weathering the downturn in the real estate market much better than most other places."

"The housing market is fairly strong in the vast majority of the Bay Area," said Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate at UC Berkeley. "It's slipping a little, but it's not the free fall you have in some parts of the country."

"When you look at the rest of the state and even the rest of the country, the Bay Area has held up quite well," said Larry Klapow, president of Coldwell Banker's San Francisco Bay Area region. "The market has shown incredible resiliency." - "So Long, '07"

"Builder's expect recovery in second half" - Jessica Saunders, East Bay Business Times.

"At least two builders expect to see some recovery in the East Bay housing market in the second half of 2008, but another expert thinks it will be 2009 before demand and supply balance out."

"Once we get through the credit crunch, and buyers realize the world didn't end, they will come back," said Scott Menard, SummerHill Homes' chief operating officer, who predicts the market will continue down through at least the first quarter. "Next year will probably be a bit of an adjustment year."

Which brings us to the question; Will 2008 be a good time to invest in real estate? See what a recent survey showed taken by the East Bay Business Times. 60% say that now is a good time to buy! Read their comments as to why.

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, CAR, East Bay Business Times, Fisher Center for Real Estate, Ken Rosen, Moody's Economy, Real Estate Cycles, San Francisco Chronicle, The Motley Fool

C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young on KNX 1070 AM, June 25, 2007.

C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young discusses the housing numbers for May 2007 and what they mean for the California real estate market. You can listen to the audio interview Here.

And here's the report that she's referring to released from C.A.R. on June 25th;

C.A.R. reports sales decrease 25 percent in May, median price of a home in California at $591,180, up 4.8 percent from year ago.

Here's a look at May's numbers for Contra Costa County;

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, CAR, Continuing Study of the California Economy, Contra Costa Times, DataQuick, Fisher Center for Real Estate, Real Estate Cycles, San Francisco Chronicle

National decline would be first in record-keeping era - By David Armstrong, San Francisco Chronicle Staff Writer.

"Saying that the housing bubble has truly burst, the National Association of Realtors predicted Wednesday that the median price of existing U.S. homes is expected to fall 0.7 percent this year, the first time that has happened since records started in the late 1960s."

"The forecast was startling, coming from the normally upbeat industry group. Last year, in a sign of the start of the slowdown, the nationwide median price of an existing home rose a modest 1 percent."

"The California Association of Realtors predicted in October that statewide median prices would fall by 2 percent in 2007."

"Economy.com analyst Mark Zandi called for an even sharper statewide drop of 6 percent."

California's struggling housing market is weakening as lenders tighten underwriting standards. "Mounting foreclosures will also be a weight on housing prices as these properties are dumped into the already fragile market at a significant discount," Zandi said in an e-mail. "This outlook assumes that interest rates remain stable and that the job market outside of housing remains stable.''

"The National Association of Realtors has also lowered its 2007 forecast for sales of new and existing homes. Tighter lending standards and the continued fallout from the subprime mortgage meltdown are to blame, said association spokesman Walter Molony."

"The national median new home sale price is expected to rise 0.4 percent this year, after a 1.8 percent gain in 2006, the association said."

"However, these figures, even revised downward, are still overly optimistic, said Ken Rosen, director of the Fisher Center for Real Estate at UC Berkeley."

Rosen expects a drop of 2 to 3 percent nationally, and as much as 5 to 15 percent in some markets. "The Bay Area will do better because it is one of the top five markets in the country. It has a small inventory and good job creation,'' he said.

"In Rosen's view, home prices could appreciate from 1 to 3 percent in the Bay Area this year."

"Despite the unsettled quality of the current housing market, this, too, shall pass, housing industry experts said."

"We still view this as a cycle playing itself out,'' DataQuick's LePage said.

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, CAR, DataQuick, Fisher Center for Real Estate, Real Estate Cycles, San Francisco Chronicle