It seems that every day now, we see more and more properties for sale that are listed as REO (Bank Owned Foreclosures), and/or Short Sales.

Our team, has always run numbers as a means to better understand our markets. We researched the EBRD multiple listings service, following a conversation that we had last night. We were not surprised as to which cities had a higher percentage of REOs.

However, we did not expect the number for the entire San Francisco East Bay area to be this high, 21%. That means that roughly one in five houses that are for sale, are Bank Owned in the East Bay area. The interesting factor is that this number does not include “Short Sales.”

When lenders allow a home to be sold for less than the amount still owing on the mortgage loan, that’s called a pre-closure “Short Sale!”

I think you can see where this is going once you add “short sales” into the mix as well. The competition for many houses for sale in the market are from banks.

Here’s our spreadsheet tracking cities in the San Francisco East Bay Area for Months Supply and REOs. Months supply is the ratio of inventory to sales. It tells us how many months the stock of homes for sale would last, if sales continued at their current rate.

For those living in other parts of the country, we’d love to hear what’s happening in your market. We’ve already heard from one Las Vegas agent, that 20.8% of their listings are REOs or short sales.

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, Foreclosure, Housing Inventory, Months Supply, REO, Short Sale

What's in store for real estate in the Bay Area for the coming year? Most in the real estate industry agree that it will get worse before it gets better. However, predictions vary among our "experts." What are we in store for in 2008? When will prices begin to recover? Hear what some of them are saying.

"Don't count on market rebounding in '08, experts say." - Marni Leff Kottle of the San Francisco Chronicle.

"A real recovery in the housing market is probably at least a year off," said Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist for the California Association of Realtors.

California Association of Realtors's forecast for 2008; sales volume will continue to fall, 9% in 2008, as will the median price of a home, at 4%. Take a look at the 2008 California Housing Market Forecast presentation by Leslie Appleton-Young, Vice President and Chief Economist for the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

"The best guesstimate most can come up with these days on a residential housing recovery is that 2008 will be more than half over before housing prices even stabilize. Right now, it's anybody's guess as to when they will start to grow positively." - Ryan Fuhrmann, an article printed in The Motley Fool.


It may take until the end of 2008 or beginning of 2009 for the market to hit bottom, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

"But the one thing that economists and real estate agents seem to agree on is this: As bad as it may get in the Bay Area, the region is weathering the downturn in the real estate market much better than most other places."

"The housing market is fairly strong in the vast majority of the Bay Area," said Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate at UC Berkeley. "It's slipping a little, but it's not the free fall you have in some parts of the country."

"When you look at the rest of the state and even the rest of the country, the Bay Area has held up quite well," said Larry Klapow, president of Coldwell Banker's San Francisco Bay Area region. "The market has shown incredible resiliency." - "So Long, '07"

"Builder's expect recovery in second half" - Jessica Saunders, East Bay Business Times.

"At least two builders expect to see some recovery in the East Bay housing market in the second half of 2008, but another expert thinks it will be 2009 before demand and supply balance out."

"Once we get through the credit crunch, and buyers realize the world didn't end, they will come back," said Scott Menard, SummerHill Homes' chief operating officer, who predicts the market will continue down through at least the first quarter. "Next year will probably be a bit of an adjustment year."

Which brings us to the question; Will 2008 be a good time to invest in real estate? See what a recent survey showed taken by the East Bay Business Times. 60% say that now is a good time to buy! Read their comments as to why.

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, CAR, East Bay Business Times, Fisher Center for Real Estate, Ken Rosen, Moody's Economy, Real Estate Cycles, San Francisco Chronicle, The Motley Fool

In an era of falling prices, asking too much might mean your house will sell for less.

If you're thinking of putting your house on the market soon, then I think you'll be interested in taking a look at this article by Kathleen Lynn. Read the entire article HERE.

"Realtors often warn sellers about the danger of overpricing a house. Now they have evidence to show skeptical clients: research by Jeffrey Otteau, a New Jersey appraiser."

"He found that in a market where prices are declining, sellers who "test the market" with a high price usually end up with a lower price than those who price realistically."

Otteau, of Otteau Valuation Group, studied about 4,500 home sales that took place in the first half of 2007.

"He looked at houses that sold in less than a month, and found that they had a median asking price of $599,900 and sold for almost full price - a median of $599,000. When he looked at houses that lingered on the market for more than a month, however, he found that they were priced higher - at a median of $634,900 - but actually sold for less, a median of $585,000. The median is the point at which half the sale prices are above and half below.

"With a high price, the house stays on the market as buyers ignore it in favor of lowered-priced competitors. In an environment of falling prices, a house that sells three months from now is going to command a lower price than one that sells today."

"Houses that are priced right are selling," said Otteau. "Overpricing extends days on the market and guarantees that you will sell your home for less in a declining market."

"Otteau said pricing a house a little below the competition not only catches the buyer's interest - it also reassures them that they won't kick themselves later for overpaying if, as expected, home prices drift lower in 2008."

"Agents should aim to underprice the competition."

"You can't just try for a higher price because you really want it," he said. "The way to get a higher price is to create a sense of urgency by setting a lower price."

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, Housing Market, Median Home Price

"The housing market is soft. Hard times for some can mean opportunity time for others. Could now be a good time to step into the housing marker and pick up a bargain?" Dian Hymer of Inman News asks.

Her conclusion; "There are good buying opportunities in the current market for well-qualified buyers. Just make sure that you pick your bargains carefully." Read her entire article HERE.

Lew Sichelman, United Media Feature, speaks about how most would-be buyers have taken themselves out of the market until prices "hit bottom."

That could be a mistake for those who plan to stay in their new home for quite awhile. "The common wisdom is that if the house of your dreams comes along, go for it. After all, it may not be available six months from now. As long as you remain in the house, any further drop in prices will be offset by rising prices down the road."

If you look at home prices over the past 40 years, there is a very predictable cycle: Home prices increase for several years, are followed by a slight price drop and then stay flat for the next few years. You can see this pattern on a graph. Although they vary somewhat by location, they usually follow the same pattern.

Lew Sichelman states; It's tough to know the precise moment when prices stop falling and start rising once again. It's not even easy to spot a trend reversal. "If it was so easy to find the bottom," Markstein,(a senior economist with the NAHB), said, "we'd all be millionaires."

He goes on to say that "there are telltale signs that smart buyers can look for, evidence that the housing market has finally firmed and is about to rebound."

His key vital signs include;

Existing Home Sales
Building Permits
Mortgage Defaults
Foreclosure Sales
Mortgage Rates

You can read in detail about his five keys to look for HERE.

There are a few sources that can help your with you research. Your knowledgible realtor of course. DataQuick has some of the most up to date news and statisitics on housing markets. CAR, California Association of Realtors, is another good resource. Inman News always has good articles on Real Estate. On a national basis, you can visit NAR, the National Association of Realtors.

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, CAR, DataQuick, Housing Market, Inman News, NAR, Real Estate Cycles

"The term mortgage meltdown has become so common -- on television, in headlines and even casual conversations -- that you might assume that this is a tough time to get a mortgage."

"But the reality is different: Mortgage money is plentiful, most mortgage products remain unaffected by troubles in the subprime segment, and interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans remain in the low 6 percent range for people with reasonably good credit. Even interest rates on loans of more than $417,000 have fallen after spiking during the summer." - Kenneth Harney, Nation's Housing

The main change during the past several months, said Ted Grose, president of 1st Mortgage Advisors in Los Angeles, is that "the products that allowed people to buy houses they couldn't afford have disappeared."

"Larger mortgages, which always have carried higher rates than loans eligible for purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have recently been in the low 7 percent range, down from the 8 percent and higher levels of a couple of months ago."

"Nonetheless, say lenders and brokers, there is a widespread and persistant belief by consumers that the entire mortgage market is in crisis."

"Other than subprime and high LTV (loan-to-value) stated-income" programs, Jim Brown, chief executive officer of Veteran Mortgage said, "we've got pretty much everything now that we did before. We've got a lot of outlets."

"Most lenders and investors are quick to note that while mortgage money is plentiful, underwriting standards are stricter than they were a year ago."

"Similarly, FICO score standards generally are higher than a year ago, stated-income mortgages with no verifications are hard to find, and major investors are on the prowl for anything hinting at fraud."

"Lenders are especially wary of excessive "layering of risk" - combining low down payments with marginal FICO scores and high-to-income ratios - in markets where prices are falling."

"A major legislative development under way on Capitol Hill could expand consumers' range of good mortgage choices even further."

Read the entire Article HERE.

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, Fico Score, Interest Rate, Jumbo Loans, Mortgage Lenders, San Francisco Chronicle, Subprime Loans

Money's tight these days, so for the first time in many tears, seller financing is making a comeback. To get deals done, people are turning their backs and doing "the old end around." - Marni Leff Kottle, San Francisco Chronicle.

"Seller financing is simple in theory: The buyer and seller settle on a price and then the seller agrees to extend some amount of credit back to the buyer. The loan is secured by the property. Typically, the seller provides financing in the form of a second mortgage after a buyer has obtained a first mortgage from a bank."

"Sellers are still able to push their price points, and buyers are getting interest rates that are lower than the retail market." Heidi Rickerd-Rizzo, Branch Manager for Pacific Union-GMAC in St Helena.

Read the entire article HERE.

Doing the deal
If you're thinking of using or offering seller financing, here are some tips from real estate experts for buyers and sellers:

Buyers
-- Agree on a price with the seller and secure a first mortgage, if applicable.

-- Your agent can serve as the arranger of credit.

-- Terms are typically outlined in a standard three-page form provided by the California Association of Realtors, so you can often complete such a transaction without a lawyer.

Sellers
-- Make sure the buyer is creditworthy.

-- In a typical transaction, you're entitled to review a buyer's credit report, financial statements and other information.

-- You may want to consult with an attorney or accountant to understand the tax implications.

Source: California Association of Realtors, Pacific Union.

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, CAR, Interest Rate, Mortgage Lenders, Seller Finance

If you've refinanced your mortgage, you may owe the IRS more than you thought. - by Ellen Hoffman, Personal Finance, BussinessWeek.

"Have you refinanced your mortgage and taken a chunk of the equity in cash? Will you do so when your adjustable-rate loan resets its interest rate? If you fail to follow some little-known rules for calculating your home mortgage deduction, you may be writing off too much interest. Instead of saving on taxes, you could wind up owing them."

"In general, the IRS lets you deduct 100% of the interest you pay on one or more home mortgages, up to a total loan value of $1 million. But when you refinance and withdraw cash, the rules change: Only the interest on your ***original mortgage balance***, plus an additional $100,000, qualifies for a deduction. (If you want to take out more cash, use a home-equity loan or line of credit. The law allows a separate deduction for interest on borrowings of up to $100,000.)"

***Acquisition indebtedness is debt that is incurred in acquiring, constructing, or substantially improving the principal or second residence of the taxpayer and is secured by such property.

"There's no sign the IRS is currently hunting down taxpayers who may be miscalculating the mortgage deduction, but the error could trip you up in an audit. Rosica says the best way to protect yourself is to make sure you calculate this year's taxes correctly. If you've taken excessive deductions in past years, you can also file an amended return."

Read the entire article HERE.

For further clarification ask the advice of a good tax attorney or tax accountant.

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, BusinessWeek, IRS, Mortage deduction

Losing your house to foreclosure, involved in a "Short Sale?" Not only do you lose your house, your credit and have to deal with all the stress that goes with it, but any debt forgiven by the lender is considered taxable to the IRS. Seems a bit unfair to someone with a financial challenge ahead of them.

"A bill that would give homeowners facing foreclosure a tax break when lenders forgive part of their debt would make up for lost revenue by collecting more capital gains taxes on the sales of some second homes claimed as primary residences."

"HR 3648, the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007, would eliminate a provision of the tax code that allows the IRS to tax debt that's forgiven as part of a foreclosure or loan modification as income."

"NAR said the bill would restore "fundamental fairness for homeowners in financial and economic distress" by eliminating taxes on the "phantom income" generated by foreclosures and workouts."

View the entire article HERE. (Inman News)

"To make up for the bill's $1.97 billion impact on tax revenue over the next decade, it would also tighten the rules for counting a second home, vacation or rental property as a primary residence for tax purposes. Under current law, up to $250,000 (or $500,000 if married filing jointly) of the gain on sale proceeds from the sale of a primary residence are exempt from capital gains taxes."

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, Foreclosure, Inman News, IRS, NAR, Short Sale, Tax Relief

This is a revision from the July Post as an update for what the months supply is doing on a city by city basis for Contra Costa & Alameda Counties.

What is months supply? Basically, months supply is the ratio of inventory to sales. And what it tells us is how many months the stock of homes for sale would last, if sales continued at their current rate.

See how your City's doing.




We currently have a 8.4 month supply of homes in the entire SF Bay Area. How does this compare historically? "A state of equilibrium" is considered 6 months, a point at which you would have an equal number of sellers and buyers. Considerably less, would be considered a "seller's" market, while anything more than that number would be considered a "buyer's" market. Since 1988, our low in California has been 1.3 months in April of 2004. It was even less than that in the San Francisco Bay Area. Our high was in February of 1991 at 18.8 months. The long run average has been 6.9 months. (Statistics are from C.A.R.)

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, CAR, Housing Inventory, Housing Statistics, Months Supply, Real Estate Cycles

We've been bombarded by the news; housing inventory glut, price reductions, foreclosures, mortgage crunch, sub-prime lending woes. Some areas are worse than others. As with any real estate cycle, they have their peaks and valleys. This downward trend took it's roots in 2005, moving from one of the strongest seller's markets in history into a strong buyer's market for most areas. Interestingly enough, not all areas. There always seem to be a few areas that do well despite the existing market woes, (some parts of the Berkeley Hills, Albany, Kensington and the El cerrito Hills for example in the San Francisco East Bay Area). It always comes down to numbers, supply and demand.

Have prices hit bottom, or do they have further to go? How long will the housing recession last?

These real estate cycles typically last from two to five years. Most forcasters are pointing towards this winter to be the valley or low point of this down cycle with some relief coming sometime in 2008 or as late as 2009 depending on which source you listen to.

Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, said he isn’t looking for any notable changes in sales activity. "Mortgage disruptions will hold back sales over the short term, but long-term fundamentals are favorable. A modest upturn is projected for existing-home sales toward the end of the year, with broader improvement to include the new-home market by the middle of 2008."

"More buyers, and cutbacks in new construction, will eventually draw down the inventory levels and support future price appreciation, but general gains will be modest next year. Serious buyers today have a long-term view of housing as an investment – speculators have left the market."

View the U S Economic Outlook - August, 2007, from NAR, HERE.

"This isn't going to get better until this unsold inventory gets absorbed," said Standard Pacific's Delva, "And this isn't going to happen until the financing issues are resolved; the smart money has the slump ending in the latter half of next year or some time in 2009." Story by Robert Hollis, San Francisco Chronicle. View the full story Here.

Delva and other builders say a key turning point will be when potential buyers return to the market, convinced that the value of what they're buying won't continue to decline.

When that happens, "There's going to be a slew of buyers coming out of the woodwork," said KB Home's Burnstein.

Will this winter be one of the best buying opportunities that we've seen in years?

Interest rates, although much harder to obtain, are still at their lowest levels in decades. Rates on 30 year mortgages sank last week to their lowest point in two months, a dose of good news for people thinking about buying a home. "30-year rates lowest since the end of May.

"As of last week, the market for conforming mortgages was still operating smoothly, and if you qualify for one, you shouldn't have trouble getting a mortgage at a reasonable price." - Kathleen Pender also of the Chronicle.

So far, borrowers with decent credit histories and the ability to document their income - "the majority of the home-buying public" - aren't being shut out from getting a loan. - CNN, "Six Questions Consumers Are Asking About The Mortgage Market," By Amy Hoak

"Sellers can no longer be reluctant to accept offers or reduce prices. Tightening credit and diminishing mortgage products will continue to reduce the pool of qualified buyers. This, along with the increase in national housing inventories, means now is not the time to hold out for the best price possible." - Alexandra Saunders, BGS Financial.

The median price of American homes is expected to fall this year for the first time since federal housing agencies began keeping statistics in 1950.

Should I wait or buy now?

Alexandra goes onto say; "Potential borrowers cannot wait any longer. For those who are considering buying a home, be aware that the volatile credit market can change overnight, leaving fewer options available to borrowers attempting to qualify for a mortgage. With decreases in home values and fewer available mortgage instruments, delaying any longer could get significantly more expensive."

This isn't fully realized until you weigh in the effect of waiting for prices to drop while interest rates continue to increase. So, you have to ask yourself, in the coming months, do I expect interest rates to increase? If so, how much more must home prices drop to counter the effect of rising interest rates?

The buying season typically slows after the summer months with a drammatic drop-off by mid October. With so much inventory and uncertainty in the mortgage & real estate markets, there should be plenty of "bargains" this winter.

"The key theme is that while it may be a different mortgage landscape, it still can be a good market in which to buy - as long as people are buying for the right reasons and are paired with loans that ensure they will be able to keep the home in the future." - CNN

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, CNN, Housing Inventory, Housing Market, Interest Rate, Real Estate Cycles, San Francisco Chronicle

Money Supply Drying Up - jumbo loan rates soar, even for buyers with excellent credit.

"Need a mortgage this month? It's going to be harder - and more expensive - to get one. In the past week, turmoil in the mortgage markets has caused increasing problems for home buyers in the Bay Area and around the nation." Read the Full Story, by Carolyn Said & Kelly Zito, in today's San Francisco Chronicle.

Fannie Mae's Berson said the tightening mortgage situation is likely to hurt the already troubled housing market.

"There are people who could have qualified for a mortgage a month ago who can no longer get that mortgage," he said. "That means there will be fewer home sales or else people will have to buy less expensive homes. The practical impact is that some people will choose not to buy now. This is an additional negative factor on housing demand. It means home sales are likely to be weaker than we thought they would be just a few months ago."

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, Interest Rate, Jumbo Loans, Ken Rosen, Mortgage Lenders, Real Estate Cycles, San Francisco Chronicle, Subprime Loans

"By rushing into the mortgage business big-time, homebuilders helped fuel the housing crisis. Now they're hurting—and so is Wall Street." by Mara Der Hovanesian, BusinessWeek. Go to the Story.

"Traditional mortgage companies and banks unleashed a barrage of loans, many to borrowers with iffy credit histories who didn't bother to read the fine print about upwardly mobile interest rates. Wall Street egged on the often-reckless underwriting by buying vast quantities of home loans for repackaging as securities. Now that the boom has fizzled and foreclosure rates are rising, the important role of large homebuilders as lenders is also coming into sharper focus."

"Even as the housing supply began to exceed demand last year, builders kept sales brisk by pushing adjustable-rate, interest-only, and other risky loans."

STEALING FROM THE FUTURE
Now it's payback time. It is likely to take two to three years, by various estimates, for the excess supply to be soaked up. The boom stole sales from the future as people bought houses earlier than they might have a few years ago. From the same issue of BusinessWeek, by Peter Coy. Go to the Full Story.

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, BusinessWeek, Foreclosure, Home Builders, Interest Rate, Mortgage Lenders, Real Estate Cycles, Subprime Loans, Wall Street

Subprime problems mean 100% financing harder to get, by Eve Mitchell, Median Staff.

Thinking about refinancing a mortgage or getting a no-money-down loan to buy a home? Something that was relatively easy to do several months ago may be a lot harder in today's stricter lending environment.

In recent months, many lenders have tightened underwriting standards for no-money-down loans, also known as 100 percent financing, in response to the subprime mortgage mess that has seen foreclosure activity soar this year.

The upshot is that today many borrowers are finding it harder to get a loan than a few months ago even though interest rates are at the same level as last year. To qualify, borrowers may find that they will need to document their income, bolster their savings or find a co-signer.

Those who are getting hit hardest by the tightening loan standards are those with low credit scores, subprime borrowers and people who are unable or unwilling to document their income, mortgage experts say.

So what do people need to get a loan if they are having a hard time in today's lending environment? The Full Story and Tips can be viewed HERE.

A related story from U S News; "Lenders Crack Down After Subprime Collapse."

And from BusineeWeek; "The Subprime Mess, Let the Blame Begin."

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, BusinessWeek, Contra Costa Times, Interest Rate, Real Estate Cycles, Subprime Loans

This is a revision from the May Post as an update for what the months supply is doing on a city by city basis for Contra Costa & Alameda Counties.

What is months supply? Basically, months supply is the ratio of inventory to sales. And what it tells us is how many months the stock of homes for sale would last, if sales continued at their current rate.

See how your City's doing.



We currently have a 7.5 month supply of homes in the entire SF Bay Area. How does this compare historically? "A state of equilibrium" is considered 6 months, a point at which you would have an equal number of sellers and buyers. Considerably less, would be considered a "seller's" market, while anything more than that number would be considered a "buyer's" market. Since 1988, our low in California has been 1.3 months in April of 2004. It was even less than that in the San Francisco Bay Area. Our high was in February of 1991 at 18.8 months. The long run average has been 6.9 months. (Statistics are from C.A.R.)

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, CAR, Housing Inventory, Months Supply

C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young on KNX 1070 AM, June 25, 2007.

C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young discusses the housing numbers for May 2007 and what they mean for the California real estate market. You can listen to the audio interview Here.

And here's the report that she's referring to released from C.A.R. on June 25th;

C.A.R. reports sales decrease 25 percent in May, median price of a home in California at $591,180, up 4.8 percent from year ago.

Here's a look at May's numbers for Contra Costa County;

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, CAR, Continuing Study of the California Economy, Contra Costa Times, DataQuick, Fisher Center for Real Estate, Real Estate Cycles, San Francisco Chronicle

"As soon as a lender raises the red flag, scammers descend. Here's how they wind up holding the deed."

This is an article by Dean Foust & Brian Burnsed of BusinessWeek.

MILLIONS OF TARGETS
In most states, it's not illegal for one person to persuade another to sign his or her home over. And proving it was done through deceptive means can be tricky if the promises to help the owner were made verbally, as is often the case. So many victims have little recourse except through civil proceedings. But with the number of foreclosures estimated to soar to more than 2 million over the next couple of years, more and more policymakers are scrambling to keep the situation from turning into an epidemic by enacting tougher penalties for such practices.

View the entire article HERE.

California Foreclosure Activity Jumps Again. DataQuick

Foreclosures Hit 37-Year High. Realtor Magazine Online

“Legal Guide to Foreclosure-related Transactions" C.A.R.

The Foreclosure Report from Mike at Patagonia Finance

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, BusinessWeek, CAR, DataQuick, Interest Rate, Real Estate Cycles, Realtor Magazine

The rate of home price appreciation in the U.S. remained slow but positive in the first quarter of 2007. The OFHEO House Price Index (HPI), which is based on data from sales and refinance transactions, were released today by OFHEO Director James B. Lockhart, as part of the quarterly report analyzing housing price appreciation trends.

OFHEO’s full PDF of the report released May 31, 2007 is at: www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/1q07hpi.pdf .

The following map provided by OFHEA gives you an overall perspective on House Appreciation over the past 12 months on a regional basis.




On a regional basis, the Mountain Census Division continues to have the strongest housing markets, as it was home to the four states with the greatest annual appreciation rates: Utah, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming.

Seven states experienced double-digit appreciation rates between first-quarter 2006 and first-quarter 2007. The states with the fastest rate of appreciation for the period were Utah (17.01 percent); Idaho (12.27 percent); Montana (11.68 percent); Wyoming (11.67 percent); Washington (11.63 percent); New Mexico (11.21 percent); and Oregon (10.77 percent).

At the metropolitan level, prices were up from the previous quarter in 237 of the 285 cities on OFHEO's list of ranked metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Another 46 cities experienced price declines, with no change in two other MSAs.

The MSAs with the greatest annual rate of appreciation between the first quarter of 2006 and the first quarter of 2007 were: Wenatchee, Wash. (25.6 percent); Provo-Orem, Utah (19.7 percent); and Salt Lake City, Utah (19.1 percent). The MSAs with the lowest rates of appreciation for the same period were: Punta Gorda, Fla. (-4.6 percent); Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, Calif. (-4.4 percent); and Modesto, Calif. (-4.4 percent).

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, Housing Appreciation, NAR, Real Estate Cycles

"The Bay Area appears to be shaking off the nation's housing doldrums."

"Local home prices are still going through the roof, even though far fewer properties are changing hands. That contradicts the national real estate trend of slumps in both price and sales volume."

"Why does the region's housing seem to defy gravity?"

"It's the wealth effect."

"The Bay Area is one of the strongest economies in the country today," said Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at UC Berkeley. "The upper end of the market in the inner areas (San Francisco and the counties closest to it) is doing extremely well. This is a completely different trend than the rest of the country."

Read Carolyn's entire article from today's San Francisco Chronicle HERE.

"DataQuick's county breakdowns show that existing-home prices rose in April in the six innermost Bay Area counties -- Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Santa Clara, San Francisco and San Mateo -- but declined in the area's furthest-out counties: Napa, Solano and Sonoma."

For a complete breakdown by county, view the full story from DataQuick.

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, Continuing Study of the California Economy, Housing Inventory, Real Estate Cycles, San Francisco Chronicle

The real estate industry was hit with some bad news this week with rising foreclosures and a drop in the nationwide median home price.

Inman News managing editor Jessica Swesey and founder and publisher Bradley Inman discuss the significance of the latest statistics.

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, DataQuick, Housing Statistics, Inman News, Median Home Price, Real Estate Cycles

However, these bits of information that we are able to pull are only snapshots. Tracking these numbers over time gives us the ability to spot trends. These trends may be subject to our interpretation, but they do give us an up to date insight on a market so that we are able to make a more well informed real estate decision

How many homes are for sale in your neighborhood, how long have they been on the market, and how many buyers are looking? (Simply put supply and demand). This translates to actives, average days on the market (actives only), and pending sales. The relationship that we find to each other in our respective markets can give us some indication as to whether we are in a sellers, a normal, or even a buyers market. This can be done on a more local basis, being able to look at your neighborhood by itself.



The chart above tracks the number of actives (homes for sale) and the number of pendings, (homes that are in contract with buyers). The sample was taken from 34 cities within Alameda and Contra Costa Counties. Pendings have dropped in comparison to actives since July of 2005. While the inventory (homes for sale) have climbed at a very aggressive pace since then. Simply put, there are more homes on the market with fewer buyers.

We currently have a 6.5 month supply of homes in the area. How does this compare historically? "A state of equilibrium" is considered 6 months, a point at which you would have an equal number of sellers and buyers. Considerably less, would be considered a "seller's" market, while anything more than that number would be considered a "buyer's" market. Since 1988, our low in California has been 1.3 months in April of 2004. It was even less than that in the San Francisco Bay Area. Our high was in February of 1991 at 18.8 months. The long run average has been 6.9 months. (Statistics are from C.A.R.)

See how your City's doing.


We, as real estate agents, have access to the MLS, and are able to extract up to the minute information to give us a better clue as to what’s really happening in your neighborhoods.

Some of what you see is seasonal, some unique to this market.

The graph above measures a very large area. A sample this large, translates to being able to make only very broad general conclusions about this market overall. It doesn’t necessarily tell the story of the market in your particular neighborhood.

In reality, there are markets within markets, different neighborhoods within cities. Not every neighborhood in Berkeley, for example, will be quite the same. Some neighborhoods will have stronger markets than others. The right house, presented well, in the right neighborhood, and at the right price continues to bring multiple offers. However, in most cases, homes are staying on the market longer, we’re seeing price reductions, and there are more homes coming onto an already saturated market.

What can you make of all this? Making your real estate decisions should be based on up to date information that reflects the conditions of your specific neighborhood. Ask your well informed real estate agent to talk to you about the market trends and conditions of your neighborhood before making that all important decision to buy or sell a home.

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, CAR, Housing Inventory, Months Supply