"The housing market is soft. Hard times for some can mean opportunity time for others. Could now be a good time to step into the housing marker and pick up a bargain?" Dian Hymer of Inman News asks.

Her conclusion; "There are good buying opportunities in the current market for well-qualified buyers. Just make sure that you pick your bargains carefully." Read her entire article HERE.

Lew Sichelman, United Media Feature, speaks about how most would-be buyers have taken themselves out of the market until prices "hit bottom."

That could be a mistake for those who plan to stay in their new home for quite awhile. "The common wisdom is that if the house of your dreams comes along, go for it. After all, it may not be available six months from now. As long as you remain in the house, any further drop in prices will be offset by rising prices down the road."

If you look at home prices over the past 40 years, there is a very predictable cycle: Home prices increase for several years, are followed by a slight price drop and then stay flat for the next few years. You can see this pattern on a graph. Although they vary somewhat by location, they usually follow the same pattern.

Lew Sichelman states; It's tough to know the precise moment when prices stop falling and start rising once again. It's not even easy to spot a trend reversal. "If it was so easy to find the bottom," Markstein,(a senior economist with the NAHB), said, "we'd all be millionaires."

He goes on to say that "there are telltale signs that smart buyers can look for, evidence that the housing market has finally firmed and is about to rebound."

His key vital signs include;

Existing Home Sales
Building Permits
Mortgage Defaults
Foreclosure Sales
Mortgage Rates

You can read in detail about his five keys to look for HERE.

There are a few sources that can help your with you research. Your knowledgible realtor of course. DataQuick has some of the most up to date news and statisitics on housing markets. CAR, California Association of Realtors, is another good resource. Inman News always has good articles on Real Estate. On a national basis, you can visit NAR, the National Association of Realtors.

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, CAR, DataQuick, Housing Market, Inman News, NAR, Real Estate Cycles

Losing your house to foreclosure, involved in a "Short Sale?" Not only do you lose your house, your credit and have to deal with all the stress that goes with it, but any debt forgiven by the lender is considered taxable to the IRS. Seems a bit unfair to someone with a financial challenge ahead of them.

"A bill that would give homeowners facing foreclosure a tax break when lenders forgive part of their debt would make up for lost revenue by collecting more capital gains taxes on the sales of some second homes claimed as primary residences."

"HR 3648, the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007, would eliminate a provision of the tax code that allows the IRS to tax debt that's forgiven as part of a foreclosure or loan modification as income."

"NAR said the bill would restore "fundamental fairness for homeowners in financial and economic distress" by eliminating taxes on the "phantom income" generated by foreclosures and workouts."

View the entire article HERE. (Inman News)

"To make up for the bill's $1.97 billion impact on tax revenue over the next decade, it would also tighten the rules for counting a second home, vacation or rental property as a primary residence for tax purposes. Under current law, up to $250,000 (or $500,000 if married filing jointly) of the gain on sale proceeds from the sale of a primary residence are exempt from capital gains taxes."

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, Foreclosure, Inman News, IRS, NAR, Short Sale, Tax Relief

The real estate industry was hit with some bad news this week with rising foreclosures and a drop in the nationwide median home price.

Inman News managing editor Jessica Swesey and founder and publisher Bradley Inman discuss the significance of the latest statistics.

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, DataQuick, Housing Statistics, Inman News, Median Home Price, Real Estate Cycles

"Implosion hitting would-be homeowners, desperate sellers hard, but some see a reflection of safe practices."

"It's essentially eliminating 15 (percent) to 20 percent of the market," said Ed Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. "What drove the California marketplace wasn't foreign borrowers but entry-level buyers helped into the market by exotic loans." as quoted in an article By Barbara E. Hernandez of the CONTRA COSTA TIMES. Read the entire article HERE.

"Problems in mortgage lending go "well beyond subprime," and the tightening of loan underwriting standards now underway is likely to push demand for homes down 15 percent and depress prices by 5 percent this year. Quoted from Inman's Matt Carter, Here for the rest of the article."

That's the rather gloomy forecast by analysts who follow the stocks of major home builders for Banc of America Securities LLC.

"In a report issued Tuesday, "Dissecting the Mortgage Distress," BAS analysts said there's already an excess supply of 800,000 existing homes on the market, and another 300,000 will soon be added to inventories through foreclosure."

But the biggest problem facing housing markets may be the tightening of credit that's taking place as lenders put the brakes on risky loans including low-documentation and zero-down-payment mortgages, the report said.

"We expect loans with a combination of low FICO scores and high (loan-to-value ratios) will end or tighten with many buyers choosing to remain as renters," wrote BAS analyst Daniel Oppenheim. BAS is a subsidiary of Bank of America Corp.

"BAS expects home prices to fall by 5 percent in 2007. Coming on the heels of a 2 percent price decline in 2006, the 7 percent cumulative price drop would be the largest decline in home prices since the early 1980s."

"Falling prices are likely to cause even more defaults and foreclosures, BAS analysts said."

"We do not anticipate that the mortgage credit issues are solely a result of the loan underwriting from '06," the report noted. "Rather, our view is that a primary driver of the problem is the decline in home prices, which leaves some households owing more on their mortgage than their home is worth."

"A First American CoreLogic Inc. study released Monday contained a similar finding, predicting that each 1 percent reduction in home prices will result in an additional 70,000 foreclosures." - Subprime lending meltdown seen as threat to economy

"The meltdown in subprime lending could have broader impacts on the economy, as mortgage lenders tighten restrictions on a broad spectrum of loans including those made to small businesses, said Christian E. Weller, senior economist at the Center for American Progress."

"With subprime lenders pulling back, it means fewer people can enter the market, because people looking to sell their homes have a harder time doing so, or must lower their price," Weller said. "Prices stagnate, there are fewer home sales, home construction and home equity cash outs."

Top subprime lenders: Where are they now?

2006 subprime loan performance will be worst in a decade

"Traps of Easy Credit" Reckless lending to blame for mortgage woes - James Grant

Exotic loans become commonplace

"Lenders began offering nontraditional loans that allowed borrowers to purchase homes they might not otherwise have been able to afford, especially in markets where home prices had seen annual increases at double-digit rates."

"These nontraditional or "exotic" loan types, such as payment-option ARM and interest-only loans, allowed borrowers to start out making monthly payments that in some cases didn't even cover all of the interest owed on a loan, let alone the payback on any of a loan's principal."

"If the loans that fueled the boom become unavailable, first-time home buyers who are ready to make the plunge may be unable to obtain loans that suit their needs. Even homeowners with sensible loans could get hurt in the fallout, because of the ripple effect that would take place if sellers who are ready to move up to pricier digs aren't able to sell their starter homes to first-time buyers."

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, BusinessWeek, Fico Score, Inman News, Interest Rate, Real Estate Cycles, Subprime Loans, UCLA Anderson Forecast

Appealing to buyers will take more work than in years past.

"If you're going to sell next year, the key to a successful closing will be planning. To get you going, here is my annual list of home seller resolutions you might want to keep."

Ilyce Glink of Inman News gives us the following pointers in her article posted today.

1. Overcome any possible objections a buyer would have.

Sellers don't often understand that their primary job is to not only eliminate any potential objections that would stand in the way for a buyer to make an offer but to exceed their expectations as well. If your home is competitively priced, and your home's condition exceeds a buyer's expectations, you'll get the offer you want.

2. Get my home into shape before I let anyone see it.

Getting a home into "selling shape" is quite different from even having a clean, beautiful home. You need to "stage" your home, which means you have to make it look exactly the way a buyer thinks it should.

For best results, do this before you invite any real estate agents or brokers in to assess how much it is worth. The agents you interview will be your "Wow!" test. If they walk into your home and say, "Wow! What a great place you have here," you know you've done it right.

How do you stage a home? Start by throwing away, giving away or packing away anything you haven't used in the last three to five years. You should also give your home a thorough cleaning and address any small fixer-upper projects you've been putting off.

Once your home is clean, you can assess what kind of other work needs to be done. Should you give your home's interior and exterior a fresh coat of white paint? Do you need to power wash your vinyl siding? Should the windows be washed? The wood floor polished? New wallpaper put up in the guest bathroom? Does your landscaping require a visit or two by a professional landscaper? Whatever you decide to do, make sure it's completely finished before you invite anyone over to see your home.

Finally, move out excess furniture, buy matching towel sets for the bathroom, and make sure you have a new cover with matching pillows for your bedrooms. Your home should look very put together, as if you were auditioning for the cover of a home decorating magazine.

3. Invite at least three agents to create a comparative marketing analysis.

Often, sellers simply call the agent who sold them their home to list it. While you may end up with that person, you'll be doing yourself a favor if you invite a couple of other agents in from different firms.

Why? Because each agent will have a different marketing plan and idea about how much your home is worth. If you invite three agents to prepare a comparative marketing analysis (a CMA is a sales tool that analyzes homes similar to yours that have recently sold, presents a marketing plan and suggested list price), one will bring in a high price, one a low price, and one somewhere in between. Each may have a slightly different idea about how to market your home, or give you ideas that you can share with the agent you finally choose.

If you don't like any of the three agents you've invited to your home, get some referrals and invite additional agents to prepare a CMA. One good way to get agent referrals is to ask the agents you invited to do a CMA who they think is the best agent in town (other than themselves, of course).

4. Know what my selling timetable is before I list my home.

Do you want to sell or do you need to sell? If you need to be out in three months or less, you'll need an aggressive agent with a very competitive list price. If you've got six months or a year in which to sell, you may choose to price your home a little higher, or may choose a different type of agent. Knowing when you have to move -- and sharing that crucial bit of information with your agent -- allows you to choose a correct pricing and marketing strategy.

5. Be realistic about the market.

After a half-dozen years of a super-hot seller's market, the tables have turned in many markets. Expensive homes are selling more slowly than homes priced for first-time buyers. (Although homes priced at $10 million and above seem to be selling at the same pace as always.)

Accept the reality of your local market and make sure you price your home realistically. Don't blame your broker if you don't get three offers over your list price within 24 hours of putting your home on the market. Sellers who set sky-high prices could wait months for an offer and may wind up with the same price they would have had if they'd priced their home correctly the first time -- or a lot less.

6. Know where I'm going.

Once you've decided to sell, you ought to think about where you want to go. Often, people move to another home within the same general neighborhood. But if you're moving to a different city, state or part of the country, you'll need to do your homework ahead of time. Start researching neighborhoods that offer the amenities you're interested in. Don't wait until you have a contract on your home. That's the time you should be seriously looking to put in an offer on your new home, not start the process of exploring neighborhoods.

Or, if you're not sure what you want to do, consider renting on a short-term or month-to-month lease. These days, landlords are hurting and they may be perfectly happy to accept a six-month lease.

7. Read all documents thoroughly before I sign them.

Why would someone sign a legal document he or she hasn't read? I'm not sure, but home sellers do it every day. If you're going to sell (or buy) in the coming year, promise yourself that you'll take the time to read and understand the listing contract, offer to purchase, and loan documents for your next purchase. (If you're taking back a loan for the home buyer, have an attorney prepare the documents so you are sure to be protected.) Unless you've got cash to spare, a mistake in these documents and the warranties they contain could seriously affect your finances.

8. Set my minimum sales price.

Everyone wants to get his/her list price. But unless you're in a strong seller's market (where there aren't enough homes to meet the demand), it's unlikely you'll get it. That means you'll probably get an opening offer that's somewhat below your list price.

In order to negotiate effectively, it helps to determine the minimum amount you'll be happy accepting for your home -- before you put your property on the market. This is a price that will allow you to walk away happy. If you receive an offer with anything above this price, it's like gravy. If it's below the minimum price you've set, you can negotiate accordingly.

The psychological benefit of a minimum acceptable price is great: It puts you in control of an emotional situation by helping you to distance yourself emotionally from the negotiation process.

9. Not be driven by greed.

One big mistake many sellers make is to get a little greedy, particularly if the first offer is above the minimum acceptable price you've set. Then, the negotiation becomes a game of how much you can get.

Remember, a successful sale means everyone walks away feeling happy. If you get so greedy that the buyer walks away, you've let the deal get the best of you. Resolve to be reasonable and you'll end up shaking hands with the buyer at the closing.

Labels: Bay Area Real Estate, Housing Appreciation, Housing Market, Inman News, Real Estate Cycles, Staging